Achieving net zero by 2050: losing faith?
The goal of research is neither to cheerlead for what you want to happen, or to whine about what you don''t want to happen should be to predict what will happen.Even when you don''t like the predictions. Hence every December we have attempted to distil our research from the previous year, into a Roadmap to Net Zero, which suggests the most likely trajectory
Companies exposed to energy transition?
We have started building a new database covering 1,300 companies exposed to energy transition, that have been mentioned 2,000 times, across all of TSE''s research, going back to 2019. It is a resource where decision-makers can quickly navigate to all of TSE''s thematic energy transition research that has directly mentioned a particular company. The methodology
Global uranium supply-demand?
Our global uranium supply-demand model sees the market 5% under-supplied through 2030, including 7% market deficits at peak in 2025, as demand ramps from 165M lbs pa to 230M lbs pa in 2030. This is even after generous risking and no room for disruptions. What implications for broader power markets, decarbonization ambitions, and uranium prices?
Thunder Said Energy
Thunder Said Energy | 2,631 followers on LinkedIn. The research consultancy for energy technologies | Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on energy technologies and energy transition. We publish research reports, data, economic models and patent screens into opportunities that can meet the energy needs of the world, while removing all of the net CO2.
Hydrocarbon Energy Research
This data-file aggregates the details of different nature-based CO2 removals projects that we have been supporting at Thunder Said Energy. The average nature-based reforestation initiative that we supported in 2022 scored 70/100 on our framework. Statistical details and distributions are explored. Download
Advanced Conductors: current affairs?
Power grids are shaping up to be one of the biggest and most imminent bottlenecks in the energy transition, for the reasons in our note here, having the consequences in our note here, and one of many reasons why new AI data-centers will need to build their own dedicated generation capacity per our note here.. A key challenge for constructing new
Global energy: supply-demand model?
This global energy supply-demand model combines our supply outlooks for coal, oil, gas, LNG, wind and solar, nuclear and hydro, into a build-up of useful global energy balances in 2023-30. We fear chronic under-supply if the world decarbonizes, rising to 5% shortages in 2030. Another scenario is that emerging world countries bridge the gap by ramping coal.
Thunder Said Energy Research Platform Overview
Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on the energy transition. Our work looks for economic opportunities, which can drive the world towards net zero; across new energies, conventional energy, utilities, capital goods,
Energy transition: the triple challenge?
Energy transition is a triple challenge: to meet energy needs, abate CO2 and increase competitiveness. History has now shown that ignoring the part about competitiveness gets you voted out of office?! We think raising competitiveness will be the main focus of the new administration in the US.
Power grid bottlenecks?
Posted on March 7, 2024 March 11, 2024 by Thunder Said Energy. Power grids: the biggest bottleneck in the world? Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. The crucial conclusion is that interconnecting large new loads — wind, solar, data
Companies exposed to energy transition?
We have started building a new database covering 1,300 companies exposed to energy transition, that have been mentioned 2,000 times, across all of TSE''s research, going back to 2019. It is a resource where
Industry Research
Human civilization will consume 80,000 TWH of useful energy in 2023. This is equivalent to a kitchen toaster, running 24 hours per day, 365 days per year, for every man, woman and child on the planet. 35% of global energy is used in manufacturing and materials, 30% is used in transportation and shipping, 20% is used in homes as heat and electricity, and 15% is used in
Global lithium demand?
The data are disaggregated across electric vehicles, new vehicle types, consumer electronics, grid-scale batteries and conventional material uses. $499.00 – Purchase Checkout Added to cart Demand for lithium has already trebled from 23kTpa in 2010 to 65kTpa in 2020, while we see the ascent continuing to 400kTpa in 2030 and 1.5MTpa in 2050.
Mapping vehicle value chains?
Our research in 3Q24 has wondered whether EV sales might saturate at 15-30% of developed world vehicle sales through 2030, due to total costs of ownership and challenges reaching cost-competitiveness.This means our latest vehicle forecasts only see 40M EV sales in 2030, down from 65M envisaged a year ago.. The aim of this 14-page report is to look through our
Electricity prices vs CO2 intensity?
Electricity Prices and CO2 Intensity Data. Retail electricity prices average 11c/kWh globally, across 28,500 TWH of global electricity demand in 2021, which is mostly composed of electricity consumption in 80 larger countries. The lower quartile is 7c/kWh and the upper quartile is 17c/kWh. The lower decile is 4c/kWh and the upper decile is 22c/kWh.
Downloads Insights
World''s largest energy assets by type. The size and risk of global energy assets are assessed in this data-file, which focuses in upon the largest energy assets in the world, the energy derived from them (in TWH) and their resultant risk profiles.
Latest Ideas in the Energy Transition
Most long-term energy forecasts simply lack imagination. In particular, most energy transition scenarios leave little room for new demand, which is why AI was a shock in 2024. But what if civilization was capable of harnessing vastly more energy? The Kardashev scale was proposed by Nikolai Kardashev, in 1964. It measures the technological
New technologies for the energy transition
One way to appraise new technologies for the energy transition is to lock yourself in a room with a stack of patents from publicly available patent databases, read the patents, and then score them all on an apples-to-apples framework.. Our technology assessment framework is derived from 15-years experience evaluating energy technologies, from the best of the best world-changing
US power generation under development over time?
This data-file captures the development pipeline of new US power capacity, based on 860M reports from the EIA, which cover all existing and proposed generating units of >1MW of greater.As a leading indicator for wind, solar, gas turbine and battery demand, we have aggregated the data in these c110 monthly reports, from 2015 to 2024, to track the pipeline
Global heat pump sales by country?
Global heat pump sales by country are tabulated in this data-file, for 14 countries/regions. Developed world heat pump sales rose at an 11% CAGR over the decade since 2012, reaching 7M units sold in 2022, but then unexpectedly fell by -10% in 2023, including YoY declines in 7 out of the 14 countries we are tracking.
Thunder Said Energy Research Platform Overview
Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on the energy transition. Our work looks for economic opportunities, which can drive the world towards net zero; across new energies, conventional energy, utilities, capital goods, mining, materials, energy services, semi-conductors, ''new technologies'' and ESG. 10% IRR; and what drives that
What drives global oil demand?
Posted on August 22, 2024 August 23, 2024 by Thunder Said Energy. Oil demand: making millions? What does it take to move global oil demand by 1Mbpd? This 22-page note ranks fifteen themes, based on their costs and possible impacts, to show what drives global oil demand, where risks lie for oil markets, and where opportunities are greatest to
Uncategorized Insights
Solar is the new energy source that excites us most, with potential to abate 11 GTpa of CO2 emissions by 2050 in our roadmap to net zero, ramping 18x from 2022, to supply 25,000 TWH of useful energy in 2050, or 20% of total global useful energy.But how much can solar grow? The answer hinges on relative costs.When global electricity demand is growing, then as a general
Economic costs of data-centers?
If the data-center is computation heavy, e.g., for AI applications, this might equate to a cost of around $3/EFLOP of compute in 2023.This fits with disclosures from OpenAI, stating that training GPT 4 had a total compute of 60M EFLOPs and a training cost of around $160M.. However, new generations of chips from NVIDIA will increase the proportionate hardware costs and may
Pumped hydro generation profile?
Tumut-3 is the largest single generating facility in the Snowy hydro and pumped hydro project, in New South Wales of Australia, whose history goes back to 1949.. 1,800MW of power can be generated when up to 4,300 m3/s of water descends 150m under gravity through 6 x 300MW Toshiba turbines, from the 2,000 hectare Talbingo Reservoir into the 400 hectare Jounama
Why I Hate S-Curves: An Interview with Rob West from
This week, our guest is Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy. Founded in 2019, the research firm aims to help decision-makers find economic opportunities in the energy transition. Rob lives nine time zones
Global oil demand breakdown
This data-file is a breakdown of oil demand, month-by-month, across 120 countries/regions, and 12 oil products, from 2017 to 2023.We have compiled and cleaned the data as a reference for TSE clients.. Overall, global oil demand fell by -22Mbpd at trough in April-2020; and by -9Mbpd YoY in 2020 overall 2021, two thirds of the lost demand recovered, but global oil demand
New energies costs: the age of materials?
Over the past decade, new energies have seen remarkable deflation stalled costs of a utility-scale solar project have fallen 75% from $4,000/kW to $1,000/kW. Lithium ion batteries have fallen by 85% from over $800/kWh to $150/kWh. Onshore wind has deflated by 20% from $1,900/kW in 2012 to $1,500/kW in 2022, although offshore wind, as an exception,
Global energy: supply-demand model?
This global energy supply-demand model combines our supply outlooks for coal, oil, gas, LNG, wind and solar, nuclear and hydro, into a build-up of useful global energy balances in 2023-30. We fear chronic under-supply if the world
Global vehicle sales by manufacturer?
Ford pivoted a new manufacturing plant in Canada away from EVs and back towards gasoline-powered pick-ups after its EV division made a loss of $100k per vehicle. In May-2024, Nissan delayed an expansion of EVs in North America. Mecedes-Benz said it needed a flexible approach to reflect "peaks and troughs" in EV momentum.
Energy Technologies and Transition
We screen new energy technologies with world-changing potential, including: The Energy Transition.Our work points to an economic decarbonization of the entire energy industry by 2050, with a CO2 price that averages $40/ton.. The Ascent of Renewables will deliver an enormous 30,000 TWH of energy by 2050, but this also requires overcoming vast bottlenecks, in metals,
Recent Research Reports
Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on energy technologies and energy transition. We work with over 250 organizations, to help them find economic opportunities, which can improve the world''s energy system, and
Recent Research Reports
Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on energy technologies and energy transition. We work with over 250 organizations, to help them find economic opportunities, which can improve the world''s energy system, and help the world reach ''net zero''.